Foreign Policy Talks - AidData
Foreign Policy Talks and AidData Launch Joint Report “Balancing Risk and Reward: Who Benefits from China’s Investments in Indonesia?”
Published on 12 June 2025
Foreign Policy Talks, in collaboration with AidData at William & Mary, is proud to present the policy report “Balancing Risk and Reward: Who Benefits from China’s Investments in Indonesia?” —a data-driven study tracing how China has become Indonesia’s most significant source of development finance and foreign direct investment (FDI).
Drawing on AidData’s global dataset of Chinese development finance and the Financial Times’ fDi Markets platform, the report analyzes nearly USD 70 billion in state-backed finance (2000–2023) and over USD 94 billion in private Chinese FDI (2010–2024). It maps a complex web of 58 Chinese financiers, 208 co-financiers, 213 implementers, and 206 Indonesian recipients, grounding these findings with Foreign Policy Talks’ local insights on Indonesia’s economic priorities and regulatory landscape.
Beyond tracking financial flows, Balancing Risk and Reward examines how China delivers on its commitments, mitigates project risks, and influences Indonesia’s development outcomes. The report offers actionable insights for policymakers, businesses, and researchers seeking to balance opportunity with accountability in managing foreign investment.
The full report is publicly available through AidData and Foreign Policy Talks.
Balancing Risk and Reward:
Who Benefits from China’s Investments in Indonesia?
Published on 12 September 2025
Abstract
Balancing Risk and Reward traces how China has become Indonesia’s most significant source of development finance and foreign direct investment (FDI). Produced by AidData in partnership with Foreign Policy Talks, this report systematically decodes the money, relationships, and outcomes from more than two decades of Beijing’s investments in Indonesia. We leverage AidData’s global dataset of Chinese development finance projects and the Financial Times’ fDi Markets platform to analyze the character and nature of nearly $70 billion in Beijing’s state-backed finance from 2000 to 2023 and over $94 billion in private Chinese FDI from 2010 to 2024, ground-truthing this with Foreign Policy Talks’ local networks of experts. We untangle the vast network of players involved in Beijing’s development finance projects in Indonesia, including 58 Chinese state-owned financiers, 208 co-financiers from Asia, Europe, and North America, 213 implementers, and 206 recipient entities. Finally, we uncover the extent to which China follows through on its promised commitments, how it manages the risk of public harm from its projects, and the downstream effects across Indonesian society.
Authors
Samantha Custer, Bryan Burgess, Han Kyeol Kim, Muhammad Faiz Krisnadi, Kelsey Marshall, Divya Mathew, Felix Patrick, Allan Dharma Saputra, Jonathan A. Solis, Narayani Sritharan
Citation
Custer, S., Burgess, B., Kim, H.K., Krisnadi, M.F., Marshall, K., Mathew, D., Patrick, F., Saputra, A.D., Solis, J.A., and N. Sritharan. (2025). Balancing Risk and Reward: Who benefits from China’s investments in Indonesia?. Williamsburg, VA: AidData at William & Mary.
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