Will the United States Alter Saudi Vision 2030?
- Alwi Akbar
- Nov 30
- 4 min read
The 2030 Saudi programme represents an ambitious goal established by the Saudi Arabian government in 2014. This goal encompasses domestic modernization and Saudi Arabia’s focus on regional security and economic stability, particularly in the Middle East and the Gulf.
Saudi Arabia's efforts align with Buzan and Weaver's regional security complex theory, as the Middle East remains a long-standing conflict zone shaped by history and deeply ingrained ideologies. The characteristic that drives high-demand dynamics in the region is, regardless of capabilities such as natural resources, military strength, or cooperation with regional and superpower countries.
Mohammad bin Salman finalized a key agreement with the U.S. after visiting Washington, D.C., on November 18, 2025. The question remains: how will Saudi Arabia’s vision be influenced or redirected by the United States?
Saudi Arabia’s Ambition Up to The Limit
The RSCT's regional security concept emphasizes interdependence among countries, with each supporting others through institutional and bilateral ties to enhance security, or involving superpowers like the US.
The United States and other Western countries have consistently provided significant military support, enabling Saudi Arabia to become a major regional power in the Gulf.
However, Saudi Arabia’s ambitions cannot be sustained solely on its natural resources for the foreseeable future. Vision 2030 was established as a long-term policy to secure the growth in non-oil sectors.
This policy would alter its foreign approach, particularly toward the Gulf and the Middle East more broadly, and specifically toward Iran, the region's strongest rival. For more than a decade, these two countries have been engaged in a protracted conflict, but they reconciled in 2023, with China serving as a mediator.
At the same time, for Mohammad bin Salman, Saudi Arabia must balance its power with Iran to prevent a threat from its rival in the Persian Gulf. Consequently, the defence deal with the US serves as a further statement to the Gulf countries.
The kingdom plays a crucial role in this partnership with the United States. Previously, President Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia to secure $600 billion in security and economic investments. The Crown Prince also announced a rising investment value of $1 trillion and a strong defence and energy relationship with the US.
Following the visit to Washington, DC, Saudi Arabia secured numerous strategic deals in technology, artificial intelligence, and rare materials. This showcases the country’s strong ability to manage its foreign policy.
The significant development in the security domain pertains to the finalisation of numerous transactions involving F-35 jet fighters. Furthermore, there will be an increased presence of US troops in the region, with Saudi Arabia potentially hosting these forces.
Vision 2030 poses a security challenge for the U.S. by potentially reducing its influence in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and other regional countries have maintained a decade-long alliance with China, marked by significant trade and infrastructure deals.
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Policy Priorities
Indeed, the Saudi Arabia 2030 Vision is an integral part of its foreign policy, particularly in terms of global fund investment across various sectors. The economic sector is the first significant offer to provide regional peace, and that's what it does when Iran accepts reconciliation with the Saudis.
Both countries recognised that the rivalry, which had persisted for decades, would not alter the Gulf-Persian sub-region's tendency to decrease the likelihood of escalation. While China is also involved in this deal as a broker for Saudi Arabia and Iran, its involvement has created a multipolar effect in the region, at least for the past decade.
During Trump’s first term, the US made deals with Arab countries, leading to the 2021 signing of the “Abraham Accords." The US views the kingdom as a Gulf leader and one that can influence other nations. When Trump was elected to a second term, his mission was to retake the Middle East. Having visited the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, he stated that his business in that area is not yet complete.
With the progress of Vision 2030, which has had a considerable influence on investment in the region and globally, it is unsurprising that MBS will consider joining the club. Mohammad bin Salman states that a two-state solution will be effective in the long term, particularly in light of Donald Trump's UN resolution, announced days before the Saudi-American meeting.
Saudi Arabia also commits to maintaining reconciliation with Iran on nuclear issues and supporting a deal between Iran and the U.S. The kingdom influences regional security through its economy-driven foreign policy, altering regional dynamics.
Saudi’s Security Reconstructions
For mid- and long-term plans, the kingdom aims for independent local military sourcing, with Vision 2030 prioritising the defence sector for economic and security resilience. By 2030, the defence industry strives to ensure that 50% of military equipment sourcing is sourced locally in Saudi sources.
The sourcing includes missiles, drones, and armoured vehicles, with R&D and maintenance conducted domestically. Saudi Arabia's primary challenge is the skills gap and the high unit costs of equipment and industry.
This deal centers on US manufacturing control, primarily for equipment such as the F-35. There's concern that the US could alter Saudi Vision 2030 after the negotiations, particularly following meetings between MBS and Trump.
The Vision itself serves as a significant foundation for foreign policy, helping reconstruct regional security by strengthening the economy as a strategy to achieve Middle East security objectives. Saudis maintain independence in the Middle East, balancing relations between the US and China. Their 2030 program guides their goals for Saudi legitimacy in the Gulf and Middle East.
The Saudi Vision 2030 may influence geopolitics and regional policy, potentially shifting away from US-centric relations that have dominated for decades. It aims to reshape the security structure through increased control by MBS and Saudi Arabia regionally and globally.
Economic power underpins modern control strategies aimed at reshaping Middle East security, with RSCT adding a dynamic dimension to these efforts. Geopolitics is influenced not only by military approaches but also by long-standing conflicts.
This article, written by Alwi Akbar, a Master's graduate in Politics and International Relations in the Middle East from Universitas Indonesia.
Comments