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Our Research and Publications


The Hormuz Effect and Criticality of Prime Chokepoints
The US- Israel strikes on Iran impacting tightly controlled access to the Hormuz Strait, a critical energy chokepoint, has halted 20% of global oil shipments pushing up global energy prices unprecedentedly.
Angana Guha Roy


After the Iran War: The Limits of U.S.-Centered Security in the Middle East
In the Middle East, wars do not merely alter the balance of power; they also test the credibility of security arrangements. The Iran war belongs to that category. Even now, it cannot be said with certainty that the war has fully ended. Credible reports point to continuing hostilities, mounting pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, and reciprocal attacks involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. Discussion of the “post-Iran war,” therefore, should not be understood as a descr
Seyed Mojtaba Jalalzadeh


China and the Kuomintang: Cooperation or Political Penetration in Taiwan?
Cross-strait relations have deteriorated since the election of Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 and have further hardened under Lai Ching-te since 2024. Beijing has curtailed formal communication channels with Taipei while increasing military pressure through naval and air operations around Taiwan. At the same time, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has secured three consecutive electoral victories, consolidating a trajectory that Beijing rejects as separatist. The result is a compe
Jason Fernando


The Budget That Was Working: The Cost of Dismantling U.S. Foreign Aid
The United States has provided international aid to over 150 countries for 63 years. With the dissolution of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), that number is no longer certain. USAID was the largest program falling under the International Affairs Budget and supported many global health and development programs. In July 2025, the Trump Administration announced it was shutting down the branch and by February 2026, this foreign aid agency was officially defu
Bianca Filoni


Saudi Arabia’s Blurred Foreign Policy on Iran: Strategy or Inconsistency?
Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy toward Iran has rarely appeared as ambiguous as it does today in the recent tensions between Iran. Israel, and the USA. In 2023, Saudi Arabia has taken a bold step to restore diplomatic ties with Tehran through an agreement brokered by China, a step widely seen as a pivot toward de-escalation. Yet as recent tensions involving the United States and Israel intensify, Riyadh has sent mixed signals by publicly urging restraint while quietly aligning
Syaripah Shofiah Azzahra


Boots on the Ground: A War Trump Cannot Win From the Air Alone
Donald Trump says the United States can get what it wants in Iran without sending in ground troops. Marco Rubio said on March 27 that Washington can achieve its objectives without a ground invasion and that the war could end in “weeks, not months”. He also described those objectives in broad terms: dismantling Iran’s missile and drone capabilities and degrading its navy and air force. Those are not limited aims as they are trying to break Iran’s main tools of deterrence and c
Brice Tseen Fu Lee & Juan Pablo Sims


A way out of Hormuz? Beijing´s gamble on South American Foreign Debt
Ever since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping earlier this month, the global energy and financial markets have been shaken to their core. In a matter of weeks, the Iranian Government's aggression against Commercial Oil Shipping has caused a spike in the costs of Brent Crude to over $90, with further attacks against the Arab Gulf States threatening to only worsen these conditions.
Carlos Ricaurte-Orozco


The UN’s Diplomatic Paralysis as the Iran US Israel Conflict Escalates
The international system was built after the catastrophe of the Second World War with a singular ambition. Humanity hoped never again to witness global disorder fueled by unchecked power politics. The institution that embodied this hope was the United Nations, an organization designed to serve as the supreme diplomatic forum where disputes among nations could be resolved before they descended into destructive wars. Yet the escalating confrontation involving Iran, the United S
Chionye Hencs Odiaka


Lebanon Caught between Dreams, Delusion and Despair
Even by the standards of its turbulent history, including a decade and a half of continuous civil wars, the Lebanese state is in danger of total obliteration.
Little Lebanon has endured its fair share of wars and trauma in its recent history. First, came the Palestinians, mostly in the 1960s and 1970s, displaced by Israel followed by a militarized cohort, the PLO, that was ejected from Jordan after attempting to topple the government there. Hundreds of thousands of Palesti
Talal Nizameddin


Knowing left from right: The irrationality of Indonesia's security architecture
“It is not possible,” reads the English translation of the Fundamentals of Guerrilla Warfare, “to ensure the success of political, psychological, and socioeconomic measures by means of military actions alone, for success depends on the quality of the political leadership.” When he wrote this, General A. H. Nasution, father of the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI) as a political actor, was making a point about the need to synergize military success as a guerrilla combatan
Jeremy W. P. Sitorus


Why Australia and Indonesia Must Deepen Agricultural Cooperation
In a world of fractured supply chains and rising geopolitical tension, agricultural cooperation is quickly becoming one of the most urgent—and overlooked—pillars of Australia–Indonesia cooperation.
With a population exceeding 280 million and diets shifting toward protein-rich and processed foods, Australia’s scale, geographical location and agricultural expertise make it an obvious partner in safeguarding the region’s food future. Strengthening this partnership is no long
Geneveive Donnellon-May


Low Targets, High Tension: Reading the Direction of China's Policy for the Next 5 Years
Every March, Beijing transforms into the epicenter of Chinese political choreography. The Lianghui (两会) — China's annual dual legislative sessions comprising the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference — convenes the full apparatus of the Chinese Communist Party in a carefully orchestrated display of political alignment and policy direction. This year's sessions, running March 4–16, could not have arrived at a more consequential m
Felix Patrick


Divergent American Hegemonic Responses to Nuclear Ambitions: Why the United States Deters North Korea but Strikes Iran
The nuclear programs of North Korea and Iran pose two of the most persistent and consequential proliferation challenges facing the United States in the post–Cold War era. Yet while both countries have defied Washington’s preferences, the American response has been strikingly different.
Nader Rahimi


Assessing the Indonesia–U.S. Reciprocal Trade Agreement
Over the past week, public attention has intensified around the reciprocal trade agreement between Indonesia and the United States.
Noto Suoneto


Why Iran's Rivals Don't Want an “After Iran”
Arab and regional capitals are not trying to save Tehran. They are trying to prevent a vacuum that would leave them all weaker.
Mojtaba Touiserkani


It’s never been more important to strengthen ASEAN-Australia Ties
Australia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) face a defining moment. Intensifying great-power competition, climate crises, and economic fragmentation are reshaping the Indo-Pacific, raising urgent questions about how the two sides can build a truly resilient partnership.
Geneveive Donnellon-May


Indonesia’s G20 Tightrope: Embracing 2026 US Chairmanship of the G20
Recent U.S. actions, such as intervention in Venezuela, measures targeting Iran, and withdrawal from dozens of multilateral institutions, have drawn global attention and led many countries to anticipate broader shifts in U.S. foreign policy, including how Washington may exercise leadership during its 2026 G20 Chairmanship. After the anti-climax closure of the South African Chairmanship of the G20 last November, multilateral economic diplomacy will see a new dawn in the chairm
Karlina Aucia Agusta and Lusia Novita Sari


Why Indonesia Needs a Global Economic Forum of Its Own
This article is inspired by two recurring reflections that continue to raise a fundamental question for me: why has Indonesia despite its size, influence, and potential long lacked a strong and consistent global narrative?
Noto Suoneto


Venezuela: America’s Ukraine
In the early morning of 3rd January, 2026, the United States launched a dramatic military operation in Venezuela and captured president Maduro along with his wife and flew to the United States to face criminal charges. In addition to announcing the strike, US President Donald Trump declared that the United States would temporarily govern Venezuela during the transition period.In the western hemisphere, this unparalleled sudden attack has caused tremors among the countries. Th
Rajarshi Chakraborty


From the Caribbean to the Amazon: China's crude-centered pivot away from Venezuelan to Brazilian Oil
In early January, the Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was captured in a special military operation in Caracas, and is expected to be tried for drug trafficking in New York. This represents the natural conclusion to a doctrine of maximum pressure against the Venezuelan Regime, which has been formally accused of fomenting drug trafficking operations across the Americas. The Maduro Regime has also been deemed as illegitimate by multiple sectors of the international community
Carlos Ricaurte-Orozco
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